4th Edition– The Alta West Summit
Another eventful quarter has unfolded in Canada. As of the writing of this newsletter, the U.S. is poised to impose 35% tariffs on Canadian goods outside the USMCA (USA, Mexico, Canada Trade Agreement) — steel, aluminum etc.– escalating trade tensions. Canada has paused retaliation but has introduced protective steel tariffs and quotas. The federal government is negotiating a deal, though some tariffs are expected to remain. The uncertainty is straining exporters and raising costs, with alternative lenders poised to benefit from the disruption through the domino effect of national economic strain leading to stricter lending requirements from Banks.
Canada’s housing and lending markets are entering a period of recalibration. At the same time, over a million mortgage renewals loom in 2025, most at higher rates, with many Canadians now turning to flexible, alternative lending solutions.
Through it all, Alta West Capital remains steadfast in its mission: delivering consistent returns for investors and dependable deal flow for brokers. As macroeconomic volatility tests the market, AWC’s disciplined, consistent approach offers rare stability for stakeholders within a shifting landscape
Company News
AWC has had a great quarter, having hosted a number of events, expressing our deep appreciation for Real Estate professional partners and investors alike.
George Botros, CEO
CEO Commentary: The Road Ahead
While markets await clarity on pending U.S. tariff negotiations, recent economic indicators suggest cautious optimism.
July marks a shift in the tariff landscape as newly tariffed goods begin clearing U.S. customs, and duties are paid directly by consumers. Rising import costs will squeeze retailer margins and inflate construction expenses. Tariffs on metals, lumber, and Canadian energy are adding to the fiscal strain. This could cool housing starts and intensify affordability challenges. As the market adjusts, demand for flexible, alternative financing is expected to surge. This will present a key opportunity for lenders like AWC to support borrowers who have good equity positions in their real estate. We are seeing Canada’s housing market correcting, with conditions increasingly favoring buyers. Consumer confidence is weak amid global uncertainty and a new federal government, while U.S. tariffs and exposure to export-driven jobs add economic strain. In addition to this, over 1.2 million mortgages will be renewed in 2025—mostly at higher rates—prompting many borrowers, particularly in Ontario and BC, to seek longer amortizations or alternative lending.
It is clear the Canadian Real Estate market is transitioning. Although housing starts may be declining, we are beginning to see demand for other solutions. As more borrowers are turned away by traditional banks, private lenders like Alta West Capital are gaining ground in the arena of debt consolidation and renewals as individuals search for variable-rate mortgages. Further to this, uninsured mortgages, extended amortizations, and Line of Credit options are on the rise, reflecting increased demand for flexible financing. For alternative lenders like us, this environment is rife with opportunity—especially for short-term, interest-only, or mezzanine solutions backed by disciplined underwriting.
Watch our new video
“The life of a deal,” which shows how Alta West Capital continues to unlock possibilities for borrowers, brokers, and investors alike, in any sort of economic weather.
Jared Morrison, Principal Broker
Principal Broker Commentary: Addressing The Housing Market
The Canadian property market is entering a transitional phase as we move deeper into summer 2025. Alberta continues to stand out as the most resilient, supported by strong interprovincial migration, affordable prices, and modestly rising sales. British Columbia has struggled to find a toehold amidst weak buyer sentiment, increasing inventory, and ongoing price declines. The falling knife of Ontario’s market has potentially found its bottom in terms of sales volumes, with emerging signs of stabilization. However, price recovery, especially in the oversupplied condo segment, remains elusive. While fiscal uncertainty has become the primary reason for buyers to sit on the sidelines, the nationwide economic backdrop is gradually becoming clearer and more supportive. Core inflation, despite a recent uptick, remains within the Bank of Canada’s acceptable threshold.
Another indicator of confidence is the Labour Force Survey, showing annual employment growth of 1.6%. The labour market can be fickle, and it’s too early to tell if this is a statistical blip or a longer-term trend. On the other hand, a near-zero population growth rate, driven by a decline in temporary residents, is dampening rental demand. Ownership demand may increase as the economic picture improves, which is likely to lead to modest strengthening of the single-family property markets in Alberta and Ontario. In contrast, BC may require more time for excess inventory to be absorbed.
Get a “Boots on the Ground” view of the market
Check out this clip from our recent summit podcast where our trusted broker partner, Tina Trama-Mayol, discusses the keys to success in navigating deals
Lessons from History – Editor’s Note
Amidst changing market conditions, a singular message rings out to brokers and investors alike: You cannot put a price on consistency. That is the primary mission of AWC: to offer consistency to all stakeholders. The goal of consistent dividends for our investors is matched by our striving to offer consistent business and opportunity to our mortgage professional partners. The same goes for our borrowers, who deserve a lender who can offer them reliability in a world of discordance.
A fantastic example of the value of consistency is given by Herodotus, an ancient Greek historian, writing in the 5th century BC. Here he talks about the Persian messenger system.
“There is nothing that travels faster, and yet is mortal, than these couriers; the Persians invented this system, which worked as follows. There are as many horses and men posted at intervals as there are days required for the entire journey; so one horse and one man are assigned one task on each day. And neither snow nor rain nor extreme heat nor dark of night keeps them from completing their appointed course as swiftly as possible. The first courier passes on the information to the second, the second to their third, and so on it goes, just as the torch-bearing ceremony is celebrated by the Greeks (referring to the Olympics)”.
If this sounds familiar to you, it’s because the founding fathers of the US were big classicists and based the motto of the US postal service on the Persian messenger system described here.
At AWC, this perfectly encapsulates our investment philosophy; the Persians didn’t have the fastest messaging system of the ancient world because they had the best horses or the most advanced navigation technology. No, they surpassed all others because they were the most indomitable. They could not be deterred by anything, one day, one horse, one task. Everything one step at a time, that’s what made them unstoppable. This is exactly our goal in managing the funds. No home runs, just getting onto base, every time.
For our broker partners, the principal remains unchanged: we will give you consistent business. If you bring us a deal that’s in our wheelhouse, that’s in our prescribed area of expertise, we’ll make it happen every single time. The key to success isn’t abrupt bursts of focus or power or speed or high returns; it is doing something consistently, even if just a little bit, but doing it well, every single day.
-James McKitrick-
Alta West Capital is registered as an Exempt Market Dealer (“EMD”), Restricted Portfolio Manager (“RPM”) and Investment Fund Manager (“IFM”) in the province of Alberta. The firm is also registered in the provinces of British Columbia, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Yukon as an EMD. This information is directed only to residents of those provinces. For more information, contact Investor Relations at (403) 254-9075 ext. 4218 or by email . This communication is only directed to persons in these jurisdictions. Alta West Capital holds a mortgage broker license in British Columbia, a mortgage brokerage license in Alberta and Ontario, as well as a mortgage administration license in Ontario. FSRA Brokerage License 12633, FSRA Mortgage Admin License 12634.
The opinions, analysis and information contained herein are current as of the date indicated, and Alta West Capital does not undertake to notify the reader of any subsequent change. Any information is not intended to constitute tax advice. Alta West Capital has not taken any steps to verify the accuracy and completeness of any third-party data referenced herein.
Fund information contained herein or in any video is for general information purposes and is not intended to be a solicitation or recommendation nor is it intended to serve as a full or comprehensive description of the funds managed by Alta West Capital. Important information regarding the funds is set out in the offering document and Relationship Disclosure document, which should be reviewed prior to investing. Please contact us for a copy of these documents. Units of the MICs are not available for public distribution and may only be purchased by qualified investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual performance will vary.
Sources:
BMO, 2025. BMO Survey: Rising recession concerns among Canadians sidelining prospective homebuyers. [online] Available at: https://newsroom.bmo.com/2025-05-05-BMO-Survey-Rising-Recession-Concerns-Among-Canadians-Sidelining-Prospective-Homebuyers [Accessed 16 May 2025].
Bank of Canada, 2025. Funds advanced and outstanding balances for new and existing lending by chartered banks. [online] Available at: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/banking-and-financial-statistics/funds-advanced-and-outstanding-balances-for-new-and-existing-lending-by-chartered-banks/ [Accessed 21 May 2025].
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), 2024. Residential Mortgage Industry Report: Fall 2024. [pdf] Ottawa: CMHC. Available at: https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report/2024/residential-mortgage-industry-report-fall-2024-en.pdf [Accessed 16 May 2025].
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), 2025. Mortgage delinquency rate: Canada, provinces, CMAs. [online] Available at: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/data-tables/mortgage-and-debt/mortgage-delinquency-rate-canada-provinces-cmas [Accessed 16 May 2025].
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), 2025. Residential Mortgage Industry Data Dashboard. [online] Available at: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/residential-mortgage-industry-data-dashboard [Accessed 16 May 2025].
Canadian Mortgage Trends, 2025. Mortgage market braces for impact as one million renewals loom and defaults climb. [online] Available at: https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2025/03/mortgage-market-braces-for-impact-as-one-million-renewals-loom-and-defaults-climb/ [Accessed 22 May 2025].
Government of Canada, 2025. Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs: Complete list of U.S. products subject to counter-tariffs. [online] Available at: https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/international-trade-finance-policy/canadas-response-us-tariffs/complete-list-us-products-subject-to-counter-tariffs.html [Accessed 16 May 2025].
Mortgage Professional America, 2025. Canadian consumer confidence grows after election but housing sentiment lags. [online] Available at: https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/market-updates/canadian-consumer-confidence-grows-after-election-but-housing-sentiment-lags/535482 [Accessed 16 May 2025].
MSN News, 2025. Consumer confidence rises in Canada after Carney’s election win. [online] Available at: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/consumer-confidence-rises-in-canada-after-carney-s-election-win/ar-AA1ECbxM [Accessed 16 May 2025].
Prepare for Canada, 2025. Monthly housing market report. [online] Available at: https://prepareforcanada.com/tag/monthly-housing-market-report [Accessed 16 May 2025].
RBC Economics, 2025. Trade war sours Canadian housing market sentiment and recovery. [online] Available at: https://www.rbc.com/en/thought-leadership/economics/canadianhousing/monthly-housing-market-update/trade-war-sours-canadian-housing-market-sentiment-and-recovery/ [Accessed 22 May 2025].
RBC Wealth Management, 2025. Canada confronts U.S. protectionism. [online] Available at: https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/en-asia/insights/canada-confronts-us-protectionism [Accessed 16 May 2025].
Statistics Canada, 2024. The evolving landscape of Canadian lending: Key trends in mortgage and non-mortgage loans. Catalogue no. 11-621-M – No. 009. [online] Available at: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-621-m/11-621-m2024009-eng.htm [Accessed 22 May 2025].
Statistics Canada, 2025. Employment by industry, annual (Table 14-10-0202-01). [online] Available at: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410020201 [Accessed 16 May 2025].
Statistics Canada, 2025. Gross domestic product by industry, January 2025. [online] Available at: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250328/dq250328a-eng.htm [Accessed 16 May 2025].
Statistics Canada, 2025. New housing price index (1810-0205-01). [online] Available at: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810020501 [Accessed 16 May 2025].
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), 2025. Declines in Canadian Home Sales Take a Pause in April Despite Ongoing Tariff Pressures. [online] Available at: https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-analysis/national-statistics/ [Accessed 16 May 2025].
The White House, 2025. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump imposes tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. [online] Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/ [Accessed 16 May 2025]